Robert Johnson - An introduction to football modelling at Smartodds

University of Oxford/Smartodds Ltd.

"This talk will explain what a Quantitative Analyst at Smartodds does and give a practical example of building a football prediction model. We assume that home and away goals follow Poisson distributions with parameters λ_h and λ_a. From this we build a model incorporating mean goals in a given league, home advantage, and finally team abilities. Team abilities are modelled using estimates of the attacking and defending ability of each team in the league. Practical issues in obtaining the estimates will be discussed, along with shortcomings in the model and possible extensions."

Download the slides here.

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